Common carp are a serious invasive species in south-eastern Australian waterways and cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3) has been proposed as a control measure. The release strategy and potential success of the virus will greatly depend on the population dynamics of carp. Carp survival and distribution are dependent on highly variable abiotic environmental factors, which vary over space and time. Consequently, sound population projection models are required to inform management decisions.

Here, we combine expert opinion and environmental datasets via Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to determine spatio-temporal habitat suitability for survival and recruitment. We then integrate these data into a carp metapopulation model. Importantly, we modelled carp recruitment and survival as continuous-time processes within the year. This novel departure from existing carp population models (which typically adopt an annual time-step approach) allows us to better align the model with a realistic time-scale for the virus (i.e. days to weeks). 

To assess the accuracy of our demographic model predictions, we are testing the model against biomass survey data. Preliminary findings suggest that integrating habitat suitability data into demographic models can provide an adequate representation of carp distributions over space and time, enabling a strong basis for evaluating the effects of releasing CyHV-3.