Common carp are a serious invasive species of the waterways of south-eastern Australia, and as a potential control measure, Cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3), has undergone extensive testing to confirm that it will not affect non-target species. However, any decision to release the virus is a complex one, requiring consideration of many social, ecological and economic factors, which are being co-ordinated by the National Carp Control Plan (NCCP).

In making the assessment of virus release, it is useful to be able to predict where and when it will have greatest impact on carp populations. To this end we are using a modelling approach which integrates hydrological, habitat suitability, demographical and epidemiological datasets. Preliminary results indicate that release of the virus will have maximum knockdown on high density populations in the spring and summer when aggregation is occurring.

This conclusion however is largely based on the assumption within the model that virus transmission occurs only via direct physical contact between carp, and not via water. This critical assumption will shortly be tested experimentally by an NCCP supported research project, and exemplifies how modelling, policy and experimental studies are being co-ordinated.