Past and future shifts in distribution and temporal persistence of kingfish (<em>Seriola lalandi</em>) oceanographic habitat in southeast Australia — ASN Events

Past and future shifts in distribution and temporal persistence of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) oceanographic habitat in southeast Australia (#80)

Curtis Champion 1 2 , Alistair Hobday 2 , Gretta Pecl 1 , Sean Tracey 1
  1. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  2. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania

Climate-driven shifts in species distributions are occurring rapidly within marine systems and are predicted to continue under climate change. This study modelled oceanographic habitat suitability for kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from southeast Australia using multiple environmental variables at monthly time-steps from 1996 to 2040. Habitat predictions were used to: 1. estimate rates of spatial change in the core and poleward edge of suitable oceanographic habitat for kingfish, and 2. assess for changes in the temporal persistence (months per year) of suitable oceanographic habitat within six coastal bioregions through time. Rapid climate-driven poleward shifts in core (94.4 km decade-1) and poleward range edge habitats (112.9 km decade-1) were found to have already occurred. A decline in temporal habitat persistence is predicted in the future for the northernmost (equatorward) bioregion assessed, while increases are predicted for the three southernmost (poleward) bioregions. We suggest that temporal habitat persistence is an important metric for climate change adaptation because it provides fishery-relevant information. Our methods demonstrate how novel metrics relevant to climate adaptation can be derived from predictions of species’ environmental habitats, and are appropriate for the management of fisheries resources and protection of high conservation value species under near-future climate change.

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